In the third quarter of 2025, UPS posted notable growth in its overseas shipping volumes while shipments from China to the U.S. dropped by 27%, according to the Journal of Commerce.
This divergence underscores shifting global freight flows and highlights potential strategic implications for U.S.‑based importers, brands and supply‑chain stakeholders.
Changing trade patterns
The steep fall in China‑to‑U.S. air or parcel shipments signals several underlying pressures: cost‑pressures in China manufacturing, routing away from U.S. ports, or a rebalancing of sourcing toward near‑shoring or alternative markets.
At the same time, UPS’s overall overseas volume uptick suggests increased demand on export or cross‑border lanes outside the China‑U.S. corridor. For supply‑chain operators, this means monitoring not just volume trends but directional shifts in origin endpoints and freight mixes.
Implications for retail & brand partners
For retailers and vendors who rely on China‑based manufacturing and U.S. imports, the falling volumes may reflect longer lead‑times or capacity reallocation.
Brands should evaluate whether their supply‑chain mix needs diversification or whether customs, freight and inventory strategies need adjustment.
Meanwhile, the stronger overseas export flows for UPS point to opportunities in other sourcing markets or increased e‑commerce global fulfilment. Companies might need to align with courier/carrier networks that are adapting to this shift.
Strategic considerations
Given these signals, here are three critical takeaways for stakeholders:
- Source‑market diversification – If China‑U.S. volume declines persist, alternative sourcing (Southeast Asia, India, Mexico) may offer resilience.
- Carrier & service readiness – With carriers like UPS expanding overseas, brands should ensure contracts and service levels reflect new trade lanes and fulfilment needs.
- Inventory & lead‑time agility – As origin and route mix evolves, inventory buffers, safety stock and route flexibility become more important to avoid disruption.
Outlook
The Q3 UPS data signals that established trade‑corridors can shift more rapidly than expected. For U.S. importers and brands, the key is not simply to follow volume trends but to anticipate and position for emerging trade‑flows.
Those who proactively align service partners, sourcing strategy and logistics infrastructure will be better positioned as global supply‑chains further evolve.
