As the U.S. heads into peak grilling season, retailers and consumers alike are adjusting to a volatile meat landscape. A historic decline in cattle herds, shifting poultry dynamics, and international trade disruptions are driving up prices and influencing shopper behavior.
Grocery chains are rethinking merchandising strategies while households face record costs for popular meat staples like beef, chicken, and pork.
Beef Sector: Record Prices Shift Shopper Behavior and Retail Strategy
U.S. cattle numbers have plunged to 86.7 million head, the lowest since 1951, resulting in historically high beef prices.
According to USDA data, ground beef averaged $5.80 per pound in April 2025, nearly 11% higher than the previous year. Premium cuts such as ribeye and sirloin have risen even more sharply, impacting how grocers stock and promote beef.
Retailers are pivoting accordingly. Kroger, for example, is emphasizing value-pack ground beef and off-cuts like chuck and brisket, while limiting in-store promotions on high-end cuts. Albertsons and Publix are offering digital coupons and loyalty incentives to counter sticker shock at the meat counter.
From the consumer side, the price pressure is noticeable. Data from IRI shows a 7% drop in household beef purchase volumes in Q1 2025, particularly among lower-income segments. Many shoppers are substituting with ground turkey, plant-based proteins, or chicken where possible.
Poultry Sector: Affordable, But Under Global Pressure
Poultry remains a relative bargain at retail.
Despite a 1% increase in broiler production forecasted by the USDA for 2025, exporters are struggling with global competition and logistical bottlenecks. These factors are helping keep more supply on domestic shelves.
Retail chains such as Lidl and Walmart are leveraging this stability by expanding private-label poultry offerings. Lidl’s new Butcher’s Specialty line focuses on high-quality cuts at competitive prices, catering to price-sensitive consumers looking for quality alternatives to beef.
At the same time, retailers are highlighting chicken in meal kit promotions, deli-prepared foods, and ready-to-cook packages to attract busy shoppers. Grocery store ads in May 2025 featured chicken breast promotions nearly 25% more frequently than beef, reflecting a tactical merchandising shift.
For consumers, chicken offers value and versatility. Per capita consumption is expected to increase by 1 pound this year, as inflation-weary households adjust their weekly meal planning.
Pork Sector: Modest Supply, Export Struggles, and Mixed Shelf Presence
Pork prices are moderately elevated, driven by a slight decline in hog inventory and weakening export demand.
Production is forecasted at 28.1 billion pounds, with USDA economists projecting a 2% drop in exports due to trade volatility and tariff speculation.
Retailers are maintaining pork promotions but focusing more on seasonal relevance—such as ribs and sausages for grilling season—rather than year-round volume discounts.
Some grocers are bundling pork with side items to encourage cross-category sales and higher basket sizes.
For shoppers, pork remains a middle-ground choice—cheaper than beef but still perceived as offering premium flavor. However, IRI retail scanner data suggests consumption is plateauing due to health perceptions and an overall shift toward poultry.
Processing Plants: Faster Speeds, More Risks
The USDA’s move to allow higher line speeds at pork and poultry plants aims to increase output and reduce shortages. This policy, though still under review, is expected to influence supply availability across retail channels.
Retailers see this as a potential win in keeping shelves stocked but are cautious about public perception. Worker safety and food safety advocates have raised concerns, and any high-profile incidents could prompt consumer backlash.
For now, grocery chains are monitoring the situation, with meat departments maintaining rigorous vendor certifications and food safety audits to preserve consumer trust.
Global Trade: Import Uncertainty Clouds Long-Term Pricing
Rising geopolitical tension and trade policy uncertainty—particularly concerning Mexico and Canada—are complicating meat imports and contributing to price volatility.
A screwworm outbreak and tariff threats have slowed Mexican cattle exports, exacerbating U.S. beef supply issues.
Retailers who rely on diversified international sourcing are reconsidering supplier relationships. Wholesale clubs like Costco and Sam’s Club are reportedly expanding contracts with South American beef suppliers to mitigate North American disruptions.
Shoppers, meanwhile, are beginning to see higher import label variety on store shelves, especially in frozen and processed meat products. But fluctuating exchange rates and shipping costs mean those savings don’t always reach the consumer.
Conclusion: Strategic Merchandising and Budget-Conscious Shopping on the Rise
Retailers are entering summer 2025 with an imperative to rethink meat merchandising. Many are leaning into cross-category promotions, loyalty-based meat discounts, and value-oriented private labels to retain foot traffic.
Consumers, facing record meat prices, are responding by buying smaller quantities, trading down to cheaper cuts or proteins, and prioritizing promotions.
The industry’s ability to stabilize supply chains, manage global disruptions, and communicate value clearly will be key to navigating the months ahead.
