Retailers are preparing for a record-setting holiday season—U.S. sales for November through December 2025 are forecast to surpass $1 trillion for the first time ever. But in a surprising shift, companies are cutting back holiday hiring to levels not seen since the Great Recession.
The National Retail Federation projects holiday sales will grow 3.7%–4.2% year-over-year, driven by omni-enabled shoppers and early discounting. Yet retailers are expected to hire just 410,000–420,000 seasonal workers, down nearly 40% from 2022. This paradox underscores a structural shift in how retailers approach peak season execution.
Rather than staffing up store floors, many are investing in automation, AI-assisted scheduling, and digital order fulfillment tools. Buy-online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS), same-day delivery, and ship-from-store logistics have reduced the need for a traditional surge in retail associates.
For Walmart and its ecosystem of supply chain partners, the implications are twofold:
- Logistics networks must be primed to absorb increased volume with fewer human touchpoints.
- Workforce strategies will rely more on flexibility and cross-trained teams than seasonal headcount spikes.
This hiring pullback also amplifies pressure on operational precision—especially in last-mile delivery and fulfillment centers. With fewer people to solve problems in real-time, data accuracy and inventory visibility become business-critical.
The seasonal slowdown in hiring doesn't signal weakness, but a transformation in how omnichannel retail executes. Efficiency, not just expansion, will define this year’s retail winners.
