In a provocative new report, Colliers asserts that the e-commerce revolution—the rapid, disruption-fueled rise of online retail that dominated the last decade—has run its course.
According to their analysts, digital commerce has settled into a mature phase where the gains are incremental rather than explosive, and brick-and-mortar retail is no longer fighting for survival. Instead, traditional stores are experiencing a quiet resurgence, with net absorption of retail space turning positive and major retailers investing anew in physical locations.
But this narrative is far from universally accepted. Other voices in the retail industry argue that e-commerce is simply evolving, not plateauing.
According to forecasts from Statista and Mordor Intelligence, online retail continues to gain share globally, bolstered by mobile-first consumers, AI-driven personalization, and an expanding digital infrastructure. The real story, they contend, isn’t about one channel supplanting another—it’s about the growing fusion of the two in an omnichannel landscape where customers expect seamless transitions between online and offline experiences.
One-Year Outlook: Stabilization for Stores, Momentum for Mobile
In the short term, the divide between e-commerce and physical retail is becoming more nuanced.
E-commerce is still expanding—global digital retail sales are expected to reach $6.56 trillion in 2025, an increase of nearly 8% from 2024. The U.S. market alone is forecasted to generate $1.31 trillion in e-commerce revenue this year.
These gains are driven largely by mobile commerce, which now accounts for more than 70% of online shopping activity, and the continued refinement of personalized experiences through AI and data analytics.
Yet brick-and-mortar retail is showing resilience. Despite the disruption caused by the pandemic and the ongoing shift to digital, foot traffic has rebounded in key U.S. markets.
According to Placer.ai, Q1 2025 saw a 3.2% year-over-year increase in visits to shopping centers. Big-box chains such as Target, Costco, and Dollar General are not only holding ground—they’re opening hundreds of new stores, especially in underserved suburban and rural areas.
The Colliers report points to the early 2025 net absorption of nearly 6 million square feet of retail space as a signal that physical retail has found its post-pandemic footing.
Vacancy rates are easing, particularly in lifestyle centers and grocery-anchored developments, and landlords are increasingly prioritizing tenant mixes that blend retail with dining, wellness, and entertainment.
What’s emerging is a form of détente: while e-commerce continues to thrive, brick-and-mortar is far from obsolete. The consumer is dictating the terms—opting for flexibility, convenience, and experience, wherever they can find it.
Five-Year Forecast: Divergent Paths, Intertwined Futures
Looking further ahead, the trajectories of online and offline retail begin to diverge—at least in terms of growth rate.
According to Mordor Intelligence, global e-commerce is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 16%, reaching $21.22 trillion by 2030. The drivers are well established: increasing smartphone penetration, better logistics networks, rising middle-class incomes in emerging markets, and the relentless improvement of AI-powered recommendation engines and fulfillment systems.
In the U.S., e-commerce is projected to grow at a 10.35% CAGR over the same period, ultimately hitting $2.15 trillion in annual revenue.
Meanwhile, Capital One Shopping estimates that brick-and-mortar retail—though growing more slowly—will still expand from $24.6 trillion in 2024 to more than $28 trillion by the end of the decade. This growth is driven by an evolving approach to physical space: stores are becoming hubs for community engagement, experiential retailing, and hyper-localized assortments.
These differing growth rates don’t signal a zero-sum game. Instead, they underscore the complementary roles of each channel. Physical retail is becoming leaner, smarter, and more integrated with digital technologies. Online retail is expanding its touchpoints, increasingly blurring the lines between app, screen, and storefront.
According to Sucharita Kodali, a principal analyst at Forrester, “It’s no longer about being an online brand or a store-based brand. The winners are the ones who do both—and do them well.”
The Omnichannel Convergence: Retail’s Middle Path
The most transformative trend shaping retail’s future is not the dominance of one channel over another, but the acceleration of omnichannel commerce. Retailers that successfully integrate digital and physical capabilities are pulling ahead. McKinsey reports that omnichannel retailers are experiencing sales growth between 5% and 8% annually—well above single-channel competitors.
This shift is visible across the sector. Digital-native brands like Warby Parker, Allbirds, and Glossier are expanding their brick-and-mortar footprints to reduce customer acquisition costs and deepen brand engagement. Meanwhile, legacy chains are investing heavily in technology to streamline inventory management, enable contactless checkout, and support cross-channel promotions.
Buy Online, Pick Up In Store has become a standard offering. Retailers are also deploying tools like augmented reality for product visualization and using AI to personalize marketing and predict in-store demand. The result is a more fluid retail ecosystem—one where physical locations serve not only as showrooms but also as fulfillment hubs and customer service centers.
According to a recent Globenewswire analysis, the global market for omnichannel commerce platforms is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.6%, reaching $27.7 billion by 2030.
The message is clear: retailers are betting big on integrated experiences, and consumers are rewarding them with loyalty and spending.
Conclusion: A Shift, Not an End
The Colliers declaration that the e-commerce revolution is “over” may reflect the end of e-commerce as a disruptor—but it doesn’t spell the end of its growth or influence. Rather, it marks a turning point where digital and physical retail are no longer at odds, but part of a unified strategy.
Retail is no longer about either/or. Consumers expect to move effortlessly between channels, accessing products and services when, where, and how they choose. Retailers that recognize this expectation—and build systems that prioritize agility, personalization, and convenience—are positioning themselves for long-term success.
The next decade won’t be defined by who “wins” between e-commerce and brick-and-mortar. It will be defined by those who master the mix.
