The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reinstated a scenario in its latest World Energy Outlook that projects global oil demand will continue rising through 2050, challenging previous forecasts of a near-term peak. This "current policies" scenario reflects a world where government commitments to clean energy remain modest and energy transition efforts stall.
This revision comes amid signs of slower electric vehicle (EV) adoption outside of China and Europe, weaker-than-expected global economic growth, and continued resilience in oil supply from non-OPEC nations like the United States. While the IEA still outlines alternative paths where demand peaks in the late 2020s or 2030s, the bullish baseline reflects a more conservative view of global decarbonization progress.
For the retail and supply chain sectors—especially those operating on a global, omnichannel scale—this development signals potential long-term volatility in energy and transportation costs. With oil demand potentially rising for decades, businesses reliant on fuel-intensive logistics may need to hedge energy costs or accelerate shifts to alternative delivery models and low-emission fleets.
The scenario also raises strategic implications for infrastructure investment. Retailers and manufacturers may need to weigh investments in cleaner technologies against the continued relevance of fossil fuels in emerging markets, where most of the future oil demand growth is expected to occur.
While the IEA's forecast is not a definitive outcome, it introduces a pragmatic lens for business planners: the path to energy transition may be slower and more fragmented than previously assumed.
This underscores the need for layered, regionally aware supply chain strategies that can flex with both sustainability goals and on-the-ground energy realities.
