During the first six weeks of the 2025 holiday season, e‑commerce returns dipped by about 2.5% year‑over‑year, according to new data from Adobe Digital Insights—a trend suggesting consumers are being more strategic and deliberate with online purchases amid broader economic uncertainty.
Adobe’s analysis, which draws on comprehensive Adobe Analytics data covering trillions of retail site visits and millions of product SKUs, shows that this season’s lower return rates may reflect more informed buying decisions as shoppers research products more thoroughly before clicking “buy.”
What’s Behind the Drop in Returns?
Retailers and analysts point to a few key factors driving the decline:
- Enhanced product research tools—including AI‑driven recommendations and smarter search features—that help shoppers find better‑fit products the first time.
- Increased price and value awareness, with many consumers balancing budgets and avoiding impulse purchases.
- A focus on mobile and social‑influenced shopping journeys, where targeted content and reviews support more confident purchase decisions.
While returns overall are down, Adobe and other industry observers note that a surge in returns is still expected after Christmas Day, as is typical with holiday purchases. Retailers are preparing for this peak period with enhanced logistics planning and reverse‑logistics strategies.
Implications for Retailers
For omnichannel retailers, lower return rates during the peak season can improve profit margins and reduce reverse‑logistics costs. Better product data, clearer online merchandising, and more accurate sizing and fit recommendations are key levers helping reduce unnecessary returns.
