Valentine’s Day spending in 2026 is shaping up to be steady but restrained, according to new consumer research from Numerator highlighted by Chain Store Age. While most shoppers still plan to celebrate the holiday, the data suggests that inflation sensitivity, value-seeking behavior, and intentional budgeting continue to influence how and where consumers spend on seasonal occasions.
Most Consumers Still Plan to Celebrate
Numerator’s research indicates that a majority of consumers intend to participate in Valentine’s Day celebrations this year, signaling that the holiday remains an important cultural and retail moment despite economic pressures. However, the form those celebrations take is evolving. Rather than extravagant gifts or high-priced experiences, shoppers are leaning toward more modest, thoughtful gestures.
Many respondents reported plans to celebrate at home, exchange smaller gifts, or focus on shared meals rather than dining out. This trend reflects a broader shift seen across other seasonal events, where consumers are balancing tradition with financial caution.
Spending Remains Value-Driven
Spending levels are expected to remain flat or only slightly up year over year, with shoppers carefully managing budgets. Consumers are prioritizing value and practicality, favoring promotions, private-label options, and retailers known for competitive pricing.
Popular planned purchases include candy, cards, flowers, and small personal gifts, categories that traditionally perform well for Valentine’s Day but are increasingly influenced by discounts and bundled offers. Fewer consumers indicated plans to spend on jewelry or luxury items, underscoring continued sensitivity to discretionary spending.
Grocery and Mass Retailers Well Positioned
The findings point to strong opportunities for grocery stores, mass merchants, and omnichannel retailers that can combine convenience with affordability. Food-at-home occasions, such as special dinners prepared at home, are expected to drive demand for premium-adjacent grocery items like specialty chocolates, fresh flowers, bakery desserts, and wine — but often at accessible price points.
Retailers with strong omnichannel capabilities are also positioned to benefit, as shoppers increasingly plan purchases ahead of time and look for seamless online-to-store experiences, curbside pickup, or last-minute in-store convenience.
Experiences Over Extravagance
Another key insight from Numerator’s research is the continued emphasis on experiences over expensive gifts. Consumers are more likely to prioritize time together — such as cooking a meal, watching a movie, or exchanging handwritten cards — rather than high-ticket purchases. This aligns with broader post-pandemic consumer behavior that favors meaningful interactions and emotional value.
For brands and retailers, this shift reinforces the importance of messaging that emphasizes connection, simplicity, and authenticity rather than luxury or excess.
Implications for Retailers and Brands
As Valentine’s Day approaches, the data suggests several strategic takeaways for retailers:
- Emphasize promotions and value messaging to resonate with budget-conscious shoppers
- Curate affordable gift assortments and bundled offerings that simplify decision-making
- Leverage in-store displays and last-minute convenience for procrastinating shoppers
- Highlight at-home celebration solutions across food, beverage, and seasonal categories
A Familiar Pattern in Seasonal Spending
The Valentine’s Day outlook mirrors patterns seen across other recent holidays, where consumers remain willing to celebrate but are doing so with intention and restraint. For retailers, success this season will depend less on driving higher spend per shopper and more on capturing traffic, relevance, and share of wallet through smart merchandising and omnichannel execution.
As economic uncertainty continues to influence consumer behavior in 2026, Valentine’s Day stands as another reminder that value, convenience, and emotional resonance are central to winning seasonal retail moments.
More about holiday spending:
Staff Report
Staff Report
Staff Report
