Retail sales growth in the United States is expected to moderate in 2026, according to a new forecast from global consulting firm Bain & Company, signaling a shift in consumer spending dynamics and broader economic headwinds.
Slower Growth on the Horizon
Bain & Co.’s 2026 Global Retail Sales Outlook projects U.S. retail sales growth of 3.5% year‑over‑year in 2026, a slight deceleration from the estimated 4.0% growth in 2025. This anticipated slowdown comes with total retail sales expected to reach approximately $5.3 trillion next year.
While still positive, the projected growth rate reflects a cooling from recent trends and highlights emerging challenges for retailers navigating a complex economic environment.
Economic Headwinds Impacting Consumer Spending
Several key macroeconomic factors are contributing to this anticipated deceleration in U.S. retail sales growth:
- Rising unemployment: Labor market softness may reduce household incomes and spending power.
- Inflation pressures: Continued inflationary strain is squeezing budgets, especially for middle‑ and lower‑income households.
- Weak consumer confidence: Broader economic uncertainty has weighed on consumer sentiment, which can temper discretionary purchases. Recent data show U.S. consumer confidence at levels not seen in over a decade, suggesting caution among shoppers.
These conditions are expected to slow volume growth even as nominal sales remain positive, with inflation projected to moderate but still influence overall figures.
Retailer Implications and Strategic Responses
For retailers, a slower growth environment in 2026 underscores the need to sharpen competitive strategies, strengthen value propositions, and tailor offerings to evolving consumer preferences. Bain’s outlook suggests that retailers must focus on delivering differentiated value to capture share in a spending environment shaped by cautious consumers and intensifying price sensitivity.
Inflation trends that are moderating but still present — combined with the potential for future policy shifts, such as interest rate adjustments — create a dynamic backdrop where strategic agility will be crucial for success.
What This Means for 2026
Although growth is slowing, positive retail sales expansion still signals resilience within the U.S. retail sector. However, the combination of economic headwinds and shifting consumer behavior suggests that 2026 will require retailers to navigate a more competitive and cautious market landscape.
Retailers that embrace value‑centered offerings, adapt to consumer confidence shifts, and leverage data‑driven insights may outperform peers even in a slower growth year.
More about retail in 2026:
Staff Report
Staff Report
Staff Report
