As we enter 2026, the U.S. truckload freight market continues to reflect the lingering effects of soft demand, constrained carrier capacity, and cautious shippers — painting a complex picture for logistics professionals and supply chain managers.
According to the Q4 2025 Curve report from freight broker RXO, truckload volumes are expected to remain relatively subdued through the final quarter of the year.
While October and November showed year‑over‑year improvements, spot freight rates are predicted to stay largely flat, with little upward momentum anticipated in Q4. This follows several quarters of slowing rate growth, even though rates remain slightly inflationary overall.
One key trend highlighted in RXO’s forecast is the third consecutive quarter of decelerating spot rate growth. In Q3 2025, truckload spot rates increased about 1.8% year‑over‑year — significantly lower than earlier gains seen earlier in the year.
This reflects ongoing weakness in freight demand and a supply/demand imbalance with excess capacity relative to shippers’ needs.
The capacity landscape remains fragile. Carrier exits — driven in part by prolonged low rates and high operating costs — have reduced available capacity, which could make the market more sensitive to even modest demand shifts.
Extra regulatory enforcement on driver requirements has also contributed to capacity tightening, potentially amplifying future volatility.
Despite the weak near‑term outlook, RXO’s analysts foresee a possible turnaround in 2026. The report suggests that the current cycle may not have hit a true trough and that conditions could improve next year, with a more traditional peak in rates forming as demand revives and capacity stabilizes.
Many industry observers expect that manufacturing recovery and interest rate adjustments could stimulate freight activity.
External forecasts align with this tempered optimism. A recent market analysis indicates that while demand remains weak, truckload spot and contract rates could see modest growth through late 2026, particularly if inventories require replenishment and seasonal freight patterns normalize.
For supply chain leaders navigating freight decisions, the current environment underscores the importance of flexible contracting, capacity planning, and demand forecasting.
While 2025’s fourth quarter may offer limited upside, 2026 holds potential for renewed rate growth and market stability if economic and industrial indicators improve.
