As the holiday season winds down, retailers are bracing for a significant increase in merchandise returns, a predictable yet impactful challenge that emerges each year once gift‑giving occasions have passed — traditionally dubbed “Returnuary.”
According to Adobe Analytics, returns were expected to jump sharply between Dec. 26 and Dec. 31 and remain elevated into mid‑January, rising by as much as 15% in the first two weeks of January compared with earlier in the season.
While returns were slightly down earlier in the holiday shopping window (2.5% lower year‑over‑year from Nov. 1 to Dec. 12), this seasonal spike reflects the typical consumer pattern of buying late gifts and then returning unwanted items after the holidays.
Return Trends and Retail Impacts
The anticipated surge follows broader industry data that suggests returns remain a costly and complex component of modern retail. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), merchandise returns were projected to reach roughly $849.9 billion in 2025, or about 15.8% of overall retail sales, illustrating the scale of this ongoing operational pressure.
Retailers are balancing consumer expectations for convenient return policies with the financial hits that come from managing reverse logistics. Return rates for online purchases — historically higher than in‑store — continue to pressure profit margins and supply chain operations alike.
Consumer Behavior and Return Management
Retailers also note shifting shopping behaviors. While mobile devices drive a large proportion of online purchases, desktop platforms tend to dominate the return process, suggesting that consumers often conduct returns more deliberately after holiday gifting.
To manage costs and customer satisfaction, many retailers are reevaluating their return policies — including setting clearer windows, restocking fees for some items, or incentivizing in‑store returns — while still offering generous options that influence purchase decisions.
Looking Ahead
As 2026 begins, retailers must efficiently handle this spike in returns without eroding relationships built during the peak shopping season.
Strategic investments in reverse logistics technology, clear communication of policy terms, and data‑driven returns management systems are likely to play key roles in mitigating losses and maintaining customer loyalty throughout the post‑holiday period.
