Recent industry forecasts place the global retail e‑commerce market value at around USD 7.29 trillion in 2025, with expectations to reach USD 15.62 trillion by 2032, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5% during 2025‑2032.
Earlier estimates for 2024 had been lower, indicating the shift and acceleration of online retail.
What’s Driving Growth
Several key themes underpin this expansion:
- Mobile commerce continues to dominate as shoppers increasingly favor smartphones and tablets for retail purchases.
- Marketplace and hybrid models remain dominant: the online marketplace channel is forecast to hold over 60% share in 2025.
- Regional acceleration centers on Asia‑Pacific, with that region expected to account for more than 40% of global retail e‑commerce in 2025.
- Convenience, personalization and logistics continue to reshape operations—faster fulfillment, AI‑driven experiences and seamless integration of online and offline remain critical.
Implications for Omnichannel Retail Leaders
For industry stakeholders, especially those in the Walmart Inc. vendor and omnichannel ecosystem:
- Prioritizing mobile‑first experiences is non‑negotiable given device usage trends.
- Strengthening marketplace and D2C channels will support growth beyond traditional e‑tail.
- Investing in fulfillment and supply‑chain agility becomes essential as consumer expectations rise.
- Ensuring regional strategy diversity—Asia‑Pacific and emerging markets drive growth, while mature markets intensify competition.
- Balancing tech adoption and retail fundamentals remains key: innovation gains must align with product, price, place, promotion, people and process.
Challenges on the Horizon
Despite strong growth projections, retailers face headwinds: economic uncertainty, regulatory shifts, data‑privacy pressures, and the need to prove ROI on tech investments.
The 2025 outlook for global retail e‑commerce underscores not just scale but transformation. For omnichannel players, the mandate is clear: blend enduring retail fundamentals with digital acceleration to capture the next wave of growth.
