Despite prevailing economic concerns, the National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates a resilient holiday shopping season, projecting only a minor decrease in consumer spending compared to last year’s record high. The NRF’s annual survey indicates that shoppers are mindful of potential price increases due to tariffs but remain committed to celebrating.
Consumer Spending Outlook
The NRF’s latest consumer survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, forecasts that the average consumer will spend $890.49 during the 2025 holiday season — a marginal 1.3 % drop from the record $901.99 in 2024.
Despite this slight dip, the projected spending is still the second‑highest average in the survey’s history. A significant majority of shoppers (85 %) expect that tariffs will lead to higher prices, affecting their holiday budgets.
Katherine Cullen, Vice‑President of Industry & Consumer Insights at NRF, noted that Americans consistently prioritize spending on loved ones during the holidays, even amid economic uncertainty. Retailers are preparing to offer deals and value to meet those expectations.
Of the total spend, $627.93 is expected to go toward gifts for family and friends, with the remainder allocated to seasonal items like food, decorations and greeting cards.
Factors Influencing Spending
Phil Rist, EVP of Strategy at Prosper, pointed out that the winter holidays remain an important occasion for celebrating with loved ones, especially for families with children — these households are expected to boost their gift budgets by more than $30 on average.
Supporting this, recent data from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor shows that while September sales dipped slightly month‑to‑month (down 0.66 %), they increased +5.42% year‑over‑year, indicating robust underlying growth ahead of the holiday season.
Shopping Habits and Preferences
Consumer shopping behaviors are split between early birds and those who wait for key sales events. According to the NRF/Prosper survey:
- 42 % of consumers plan to begin holiday shopping before November, with 54 % citing budget spreading and 41 % avoiding last‑minute stress.
- Nearly two‑thirds (63 %) plan to wait until Thanksgiving weekend for the bulk of shopping — up from 59 % in 2024.
- Online remains the dominant channel: 55 % of consumers plan digital purchases, followed by grocery stores at 46 %, department stores at 44 %, and discount stores at 42 %.
- The most desired gifts this year include: gift cards (50 %), clothing/accessories (46 %), books/media (27 %), personal‑care/beauty (23 %), and electronics (22 %).
