This year’s holiday season is poised to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, and grocery retailers and CPG brands must recalibrate their strategies to capture incremental growth during what the industry calls “retail’s most magical moment.”
According to a recent sponsored article by Industry Dive for Roundel, the increased pressure stems from enduring inflation and tariff‑related cost headwinds.
Despite these challenges, consumer intention remains strong. The National Retail Federation’s annual survey shows planned spending is set to climb to near the second‑highest level in the survey’s 23‑year history — even as shoppers stay value‑conscious.
Retailers who win this season will do more than flood the market with messaging — they will:
- Use guest‑first insights to understand shifting behaviors (e.g., the declining draw of Black Friday/Cyber Monday, with only 34% of shoppers finding BFCM compelling in 2025, down from 48% in 2022).
- Demonstrate measurable results via closed‑loop measurement, tying ad exposure directly to online and in‑store purchases.
- Deliver omnichannel reach—connecting digital discovery to physical or click‑to‑collect conversion, particularly in grocery where the path to purchase is increasingly hybrid.
For grocery retailers, this means the holiday race isn’t just about price—it's about relevance, timing and channel competence.
Brands and retailers should prioritize:
- Building segmented holiday offer flows (mobile, app, in‑store).
- Ensuring digital campaigns and physical in‑store execution align seamlessly.
- Tracking incremental sales impact — not just clicks or impressions — to refine real‑time tactics.
