New vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to decline slightly in 2026, according to a new forecast from Cox Automotive, suggesting a more tempered year ahead for the auto industry after stronger-than-expected performance in 2025.
The firm projects 15.8 million new vehicle sales in 2026 — a 2.4% drop from the previous year. While the figure still represents a healthy total, it reflects a deceleration in demand as economic pressures, rising interest rates, and consumer affordability challenges continue to weigh on the industry.
Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive, noted that 2025 outperformed expectations, but signs point to moderation in 2026.
The slowdown comes amid an evolving landscape for both electric and internal combustion vehicles, as manufacturers balance inventories, production plans, and shifting consumer preferences. Analysts say leasing volumes and used vehicle sales may become more central to dealer strategies as the new vehicle market softens slightly.
Despite the forecasted dip, Cox emphasized that the U.S. auto market remains resilient, supported by stable employment levels and improving supply chains. Still, affordability challenges — including high monthly payments and limited entry-level options — are expected to temper buyer enthusiasm in the year ahead.
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