As the year‑end retail period fast approaches, industry insights suggest that Black Friday 2025 will be shaped by three major shifts: increased use of generative AI in shopping journeys, elevated consumer intent despite economic caution, and further evolution of the omnichannel experience.
Rising Consumer Intent, But With Caution
According to a report from Boston Consulting Group (BCG), 83 % of U.S. shoppers indicated intent to spend during Black Friday or Cyber Monday—up more than 4 % compared with 2024.
At the same time, 81 % remain concerned about price inflation for essentials and 71 % worry about tariffs pushing up costs.
This dual dynamic—heightened readiness to shop and persistent caution—signals that retailers must work harder to convert intent into transactions.
GenAI Shopping Moves into the Mainstream
One of the most noteworthy trends is the growing presence of generative AI. The study found that 23 % of U.S. consumers have already used GenAI tools in their shopping journey, and another 28 % plan to do so during this season—representing a 16 % jump from 2024.
For retailers, this means investing seriously in AI‑driven search, discovery and personalization tools, or risk falling behind.
Omnichannel Execution: The Difference Maker
With sales windows stretching earlier and across channels, Black Friday is less a one‑day event and more a prolonged period of action.
Fulfillment, returns, visibility, and integration across online, mobile and physical channels are now table stakes. Promotions may clutter the landscape, but seamless execution can become a differentiator.
Strategic Imperatives for Retailers
- Start promotions early and build momentum, rather than relying solely on one day of heavy discounts.
- Be transparent and credible with deals—consumers are paying attention to value and fairness.
- Leverage AI‑driven capabilities not just for novelty, but for functional differentiation: better matching, real‑time inventory, optimized logistics.
- Prioritize fulfillment, omnichannel visibility and experience to win in a spread‑out retail season.
