January air cargo demand kicked off 2026 with stronger-than-expected volume growth, according to industry analysts — yet the underlying picture for global freight markets remains mixed, especially on cross-border e-commerce corridors.
Early Lunar New Year Lifts January Volumes
In its February 6 report, freight analytics firm Xeneta found that global air cargo volumes rose about 7% year over year in January — the strongest January increase since 2025. Much of this strength was attributed to the earlier timing of the Lunar New Year, which historically causes seasonal surges in export activity across Asia.
However, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw cautioned against over-interpreting the headline numbers. Because Asia accounts for a large share of global air exports and the Lunar New Year fell later in February this year than in 2025, January’s uptick likely reflects calendar effects more than fundamental demand improvement.
Analysts also noted that average air cargo spot rates were down slightly — about 1% year on year to roughly $2.56 per kilogram — even as dynamic load factors (a measure of capacity utilization) edged higher.
E-Commerce Export Weakness Clouds Momentum
A major caveat to January’s volume increase was a continued drop in China-origin e-commerce air shipments, particularly those bound for the United States. With the U.S. “de minimis” duty exemption fully suspended — eliminating duty-free entry for many low-value goods — Chinese e-commerce exports to the U.S. fell more than 50% for the third consecutive month in December 2025, and were down 28% for the full year versus 2024.
E-commerce accounted for an estimated 20% to 25% of annual global air cargo volumes before the slowdown, making these declines especially significant for carriers and forwarders that had relied on buoyant online retail shipments.
To offset weaker U.S. demand, some Chinese platforms have pivoted toward Europe as an alternate export market, but growth on that corridor has also slowed compared to prior months.
What This Means for Supply Chains and Spot Markets
Supply chain decision-makers and logistics planners are watching several trends that could influence freight capacity planning and pricing through Q1 and beyond:
- Calendar distortion effects: Traditional seasonality tied to Lunar New Year is challenging to disentangle from underlying market strength, making early-year comparisons volatile.
- Regulatory impact: The de minimis change in the U.S. remains a key factor reshaping cross-border e-commerce air cargo flows, suggesting that regulatory environments can materially alter logistics patterns and volume forecasts.
- Ocean-air dynamics: Uncertainty in ocean container routes — such as evolving conditions in the Red Sea and Suez Canal — could further influence modal choices if disruptions prompt shippers to return freight to air in the short term.
Industry analysts stress that clearer signals on sustainable volume growth and spot rate direction are more likely to emerge by the end of Q1 2026, once seasonal effects have fully played out and e-commerce demand trends settle.
Bottom Line
January’s strong air cargo volumes offer a promising start to the year on surface metrics, but deeper analysis points to structural shifts in demand that may temper long-term optimism.
As cross-border e-commerce continues to adjust to new regulatory frameworks and seasonal distortions fade, both carriers and shippers will need to navigate an increasingly complex landscape of demand drivers, capacity dynamics, and geopolitical influences in global freight markets.
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