The latest data from Xeneta shows a 5% year‑over‑year increase in global air cargo volumes in November — a sign that demand remains solid as the holiday season ramps up.
However, the same report signals a caution flag: after years of being propelled by e‑commerce, the so‑called air‑cargo “growth engine” appears to be losing steam.
What’s Driving the November Uptick?
- Seasonal strength & traditional shipping cycles: Many shippers reverted to long‑standing ordering patterns, boosting volume even as e‑commerce cooled.
- Stable demand despite weak growth engines: September and October saw 3% and 4% YoY increases respectively — which helped set the stage for November’s rebound.
Prices Falling, Rates Under Pressure
While volumes rose, spot freight rates dropped. In November, the global spot rate fell to US$2.73 per kilogram, a 5% decline compared to last year, and even a steeper drop than the 3% decline recorded in October.
This divergence — rising volumes with falling rates — reflects how carriers appear to be prioritizing market share over yield. Supply increased broadly in line with demand, which helped stabilize capacity but didn’t prevent downward pressure on prices.
What’s Next — A More Challenging 2026?
Industry observers warn that with e‑commerce growth tapering — combined with extra headwinds like tariffs and changing de minimis regulations — 2026 may prove more difficult for air‑cargo carriers and freight forwarders.
Expectations at Xeneta point to lower single‑digit demand growth next year (around 2–3%), which may lead to even greater pressure on spot rates and tighter margins.
In short: November offered a welcome bump for global airfreight volumes, but underlying structural shifts — a cooling e‑commerce boom, changing trade policies, and shifting capacity dynamics — suggest supply‑chain stakeholders should brace for tighter conditions in 2026.
