Adobe: AI-Driven Shopping Rises Less Than Expected on Super Bowl Sunday

Retail’s growing embrace of generative artificial intelligence as a discovery and purchase-assistance channel continues to reshape the online shopping landscape, but Adobe Digital Insights’ analysis of Super Bowl weekend performance showed a notable pattern: while AI-driven referrals spiked dramatically during the broader Super Bowl period, the uplift on Super Bowl Sunday itself was less pronounced than many analysts expected.

Data from Adobe, based on trillions of retail site visits and referral patterns, highlights both the progress and the evolving dynamics of AI-mediated commerce.

Strong AI Momentum During the Super Bowl Weekend

Adobe’s analysis revealed that AI-driven referral share for retail sites surged over the broader Super Bowl weekend and the week leading up to game day. In the days before the Sunday event, the share of retail visits coming from AI-powered discovery and referral tools — such as generative-AI chat services and search assistants — climbed significantly year-over-year, reflecting heightened consumer engagement with AI tools for research, comparison and product discovery ahead of game-day purchases.

For example, across Super Bowl weekend, AI referrals were projected to be hundreds of percent higher on aggregate compared with the previous year, a trend that echoes broader retail signals showing how generative AI reshapes online shopping behaviors across major events.

Super Bowl Sunday: A More Moderate AI Lift

Despite the broader weekend surge, Super Bowl Sunday itself did not see proportionally explosive AI referral growth compared with the rest of the weekend. While referrals stemming from AI tools remained significantly above typical baseline levels and above the prior year’s Sunday, the incremental lift specifically on Sunday was more modest than expected based on earlier holiday and event-driven forecasts.

This mirrors longer-term Adobe findings showing that AI’s influence on retail traffic is strongest during planning and research phases, as consumers use AI-assisted discovery to compare products, find deals, and prepare purchases well before peak moments arrive. In contrast, the conversion focus and direct purchases on the event day itself may still rely more heavily on traditional digital channels such as direct traffic, paid search, and social referrals.

AI’s Evolving Role in Retail

The Super Bowl weekend analysis fits within a larger narrative of rapidly expanding AI-driven engagement across retail. Adobe’s broader studies have documented years-over-year increases in AI referral traffic and consumer adoption of generative AI tools for shopping — particularly during seasonal peaks and high-visibility moments such as the holidays — with AI referrals driving eight- to ten-fold growth over recent periods.

However, AI’s impact is still nuanced:

Discovery and research: AI tools are proving especially powerful in early-stage retail behaviors — helping shoppers discover, compare, and evaluate products long before purchase.
Engagement versus conversion: While AI-driven referrals often result in higher engagement metrics (like longer sessions and more pages viewed), the conversion rates from AI referrals have historically lagged traditional channels — though the gap continues to narrow as tools improve.
Event timing effects: Peaks in AI referral share around major cultural events reflect anticipatory shopping patterns, but peak buying days like Super Bowl Sunday may still trend closer to conventional traffic dynamics rather than pure AI-mediated spikes.

Implications for Retailers and Marketers

For retailers and marketers planning around major sales moments such as Super Bowl weekend, the Adobe data suggests several strategic considerations:

Optimize for research-phase engagement: Given strong AI referral growth ahead of peak days, brands should prioritize AI-friendly content and product information that performs well in AI responses and recommendation contexts.
Track AI referrals as a distinct channel: Traditional analytics often undercount or misattribute traffic originating from AI tools; developing dedicated KPIs for AI-mediated visits can reveal latent demand and inform promotional timing.
Balance channels for peak days: Super Bowl Sunday and similar high-impact event days may still benefit from a multi-channel approach that leverages paid, social, and email traffic alongside AI referrals to capture intent-ready shoppers.

Looking Ahead

While AI-driven commerce continues its rapid evolution, the Super Bowl weekend results underscore that growth is complex and context-dependent. AI’s role as a discovery and consideration engine is clearly strengthening, but its translation into peak-day conversion and event-specific spikes is not linear — especially when compared with more predictable seasonal flows like holiday shopping. Adobe’s ongoing analytics will be critical in forecasting and adapting to how consumers use AI throughout the shopping journey.

In an era where retail competition hinges on both technology and timing, these insights highlight the need for agile strategies that account for how, when, and why consumers interact with AI across the full purchase funnel.