In a striking turn for the retail industry, an increasing number of companies have withdrawn or revised their financial guidance for 2025, signaling growing caution amid volatile macroeconomic conditions.
The wave of pulled guidances reflects the extent to which ongoing inflation, shifting consumer behavior, trade policy disruptions, and geopolitical instability are undermining visibility and confidence in retail forecasting.
Leading chains such as American Eagle Outfitters, Ross Stores, and Crocs have all recently retracted their outlooks, joining a growing list of brands struggling to navigate a landscape marked by persistent turbulence.
American Eagle and Ross Signal Warning Bells
American Eagle Outfitters made headlines in May 2025 after it withdrew its annual financial guidance, citing a deteriorating retail environment that included weaker-than-expected sales and substantial inventory markdowns.
Executives flagged increased promotional activity and uncertain macroeconomic signals as key drivers in the decision, which contributed to a sharp decline in the company's stock price.
Around the same time, Ross Stores similarly abandoned its fiscal 2025 forecast, attributing the decision to continued cost inflation and tariff-related uncertainties. The discount apparel chain, which sources much of its inventory from Asia, warned that fresh rounds of U.S. tariffs could have a measurable impact on margins.
Ross’s leadership emphasized that the policy shifts from Washington had injected too much unpredictability into their cost structure to responsibly maintain a forward-looking outlook.
Crocs Cites Trade Instability and Flat Sales
Crocs, the footwear company long known for its resilience, also pulled its full-year forecast in response to the reimposition of tariffs and emerging trade tensions.
The company experienced flat year-over-year sales in early 2025, and executives pointed to trade policy changes and global supply chain dislocations as serious threats to growth.
Crocs’ decision underscored the risks facing even well-established brands as protectionist policies begin to ripple through import-heavy business models.
Target and Others Grapple with Cautious Consumers
Target reduced its annual sales and profit outlook following a weaker-than-expected start to the year. Comparable store sales dropped nearly 4%, weighed down by a 5.7% decline in physical store traffic.
Even online channels, though growing, failed to offset broader consumer pullback. Company leadership blamed the combined effects of inflation, reduced discretionary spending, and a complex geopolitical backdrop. Target was not alone.
Macy’s and Kohl’s also issued cautious statements about their guidance, with executives signaling they might revise expectations downward if current trends persist.
The Underlying Drivers: Tariffs, Inflation, and Demand Instability
The dominant forces compelling these companies to withdraw guidance are varied but interconnected. At the top of the list are tariffs. Many brands, particularly in the apparel and footwear categories, face the prospect of absorbing these costs or passing them on to already price-sensitive consumers.
Inflation remains a second major concern. Though price increases have moderated somewhat since the peaks of 2022 and 2023, persistent cost pressures—especially in logistics and raw materials—have made inventory planning more difficult.
Many companies have also seen shifts in consumer behavior, with shoppers pulling back on discretionary categories such as apparel and home goods in favor of essentials. This shift has made demand forecasting more tenuous and increased the risk of excess stock, which then must be liquidated at discount.
Geopolitical risk has added another layer of complexity. Events ranging from the Ukraine conflict to rising tensions in the South China Sea have disrupted global shipping and heightened investor nervousness.
Retailers increasingly find themselves trying to model for macroeconomic events far beyond their traditional operational scope.
A Sector-Wide Strategic Reset
The decision to pull or revise guidance is, in many cases, a defensive move—an attempt to preserve flexibility in an environment where hard forecasts can become liabilities.
Some retailers, like Urban Outfitters, have bucked the trend and retained optimistic projections after outperforming early in the year. However, such exceptions are rare.
The majority of retail brands now appear focused on recalibrating inventory levels, shoring up balance sheets, and limiting exposure to volatile markets. Analysts suggest that until macroeconomic clarity returns and consumer sentiment stabilizes, many publicly traded retailers will remain hesitant to commit to full-year projections.
The widespread withdrawal of guidance in the retail sector is not just a reflection of today’s uncertainty; it is a harbinger of a potentially prolonged period of strategic caution.
As one retail executive remarked anonymously: “It’s not just about managing numbers anymore. It’s about managing volatility itself.”
