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# Global Air Cargo Up 5% in November, But Risks Loom
- URL: https://www.dbbnwa.com/air-cargo-november-2025-volumes-trends-outlook/
- Published: 2025-12-10T20:00:13.000Z
- Updated: 2025-12-10T20:00:12.000Z
- Description: November air cargo volumes rose 5% year-over-year, but falling spot rates and a slowdown in e-commerce growth signal challenges ahead for 2026.
- Author: Staff Report
- Tags: Supply Chain, Technology, Investors

[The latest data from Xeneta](https://www.xeneta.com/news/volumes-up-5-in-november-but-air-cargos-e-commerce-growth-engine-is-slowing-down?ref=dbbnwa.com) shows a 5% year‑over‑year increase in global air cargo volumes in November — a sign that demand remains solid as the holiday season ramps up.

However, the same report signals a caution flag: after years of being propelled by e‑commerce, the so‑called air‑cargo “growth engine” appears to be losing steam.

### What’s Driving the November Uptick?

- **Seasonal strength & traditional shipping cycles:** Many shippers reverted to long‑standing ordering patterns, boosting volume even as e‑commerce cooled.
- **Stable demand despite weak growth engines:** September and October saw 3% and 4% YoY increases respectively — which helped set the stage for November’s rebound.

### Prices Falling, Rates Under Pressure

While volumes rose, [spot freight rates dropped](https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/xeneta-november-air-cargo-volumes/807319/?ref=dbbnwa.com). In November, the global spot rate fell to US$2.73 per kilogram, a 5% decline compared to last year, and even a steeper drop than the 3% decline recorded in October.

This divergence — rising volumes with falling rates — reflects how carriers appear to be prioritizing market share over yield. Supply increased broadly in line with demand, which helped stabilize capacity but didn’t prevent downward pressure on prices.

### What’s Next — A More Challenging 2026?

[Industry observers](https://www.dbbnwa.com/articles/charting-the-future-of-freight-with-ship-angels-game-changing-supply-chain-solutions-with-graham-parker/) warn that with e‑commerce growth tapering — combined with extra headwinds like tariffs and changing de minimis regulations — 2026 may prove more difficult for air‑cargo carriers and freight forwarders.

Expectations at Xeneta point to lower single‑digit demand growth next year (around 2–3%), which may lead to even greater pressure on spot rates and tighter margins.

In short: November offered a welcome bump for global airfreight volumes, but underlying structural shifts — a cooling e‑commerce boom, changing trade policies, and shifting capacity dynamics — suggest supply‑chain stakeholders should brace for tighter conditions in 2026.